NOAA forecasts 60% chance of above-average hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is
predicting a 60% chance for an above-normal hurricane season.

NOAA released
its forecast on Thursday for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes
from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The agency is predicting a 30% chance of a near-normal
season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting:

• Between 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
• Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher),
• It includes three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. 

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most
advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide
Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been
more prepared for hurricane season.”

The 2024 season had 18 named storms. Eleven became
hurricanes, and five became major storms.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding
from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far
beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA
is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and
provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

NOAA takes into account several factors, including continued
ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for
weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African
Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. People
can read more about NOAA’s forecast on its website.

NOAA’s forecast comes on the heels of the WRAL Severe Weather
team’s forecast of a near-average
number of systems this hurricane season.

The WRAL Severe Weather is forecasting:

• 13-15 named storms
• Between six and eight storms are expected to become hurricanes
• Between two and three hurricanes would become Category 3 or higher (winds of 111 mph or higher)

For the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, North Carolina State
University researchers are predicting
between 12-15 named storms and Colorado
State University predicted 17 named storms.

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